Euro 2024 qualifying – Matchday 9 predictions

Ahead of the final international break of the calendar year, only nine of the 24 teams that will compete in the upcoming 2024 European Championship are known.

By the end of November, 21 nations will be able to book their tickets to Germany. In the infinite wisdom of European football’s governing body, the final three participants won’t be decided until the culmination of the UEFA Nations League playoffs in March, a full year since the qualification process first started.

Here’s what may transpire in the penultimate round of qualifying fixtures.

Both Spain and Scotland have sealed their spots at Euro 2024. The top two in Group A are locked on the same points with an identical head-to-head record. The battle for top spot – and a higher seeding in next summer’s finals – comes down to a question of goal difference if both nations win their remaining fixtures.

Spain have the far more straightforward task up against winless Cyprus while Scotland travel to Georgia to face a nation that has lost once on home soil in the past two years.

Already eliminated Sweden are playing for nothing but pride when they make the daunting trek to Baku on Thursday. Their hosts Azerbaijan maintain some hope of sneaking through the backdoor of the playoffs, as do Estonia. Ralf Rangnick’s reinvigorated Austria, who finish their campaign in Tallinn, will hop over the border into Germany next summer and could still overtake Belgium as winners of Group F.

Group G is far more open. All three of Hungary, Serbia and Montenegro can qualify or miss out entirely on the upcoming finals. Hungary, the surprise package of the last Euros, only need a draw away to winless Bulgaria on Thursday to cement their position. Montenegro not only have to defeat Lithuania but hope Bulgaria do them a favour when they face Serbia in the next round of fixtures.

Portugal, already assured of first place with a 100% record, may not have anything riding on their trip to lowly Liechtenstein but the term ‘dead rubber’ is not in Cristiano Ronaldo’s vocabulary. An upwardly mobile Luxembourg side still foster aspirations of joining Portugal in the top two, but would need to defeat Bosnia and Herzegovina while willing Iceland to victory against Slovakia, the side currently sat second in Group J.

Gareth Southgate has steered England to a fourth consecutive major tournament with two games to spare. The Three Lions host Malta on Friday with the aim of preserving a stellar qualification record under Southgate one of the few elements of jeopardy.

Since the former centre-back reluctantly took over from Sam Allardyce, England have lost just one qualifier; a 2-1 reverse away to the Czech Republic in October 2019. England haven’t suffered defeat in a qualification match at home since Steve McClaren was infamously dubbed ‘the Wally with the Brolly’ after overseeing a sodden 3-2 loss to Croatia in November 2007.

The low stakes attached to England’s contest contrast with Italy‘s bout against their bogey team North Macedonia. Theoretically, the Azzurri could lose once again to the side that denied them a spot in the last World Cup, but that would heap all of the pressure onto their final tie against Ukraine next week. A win in Rome would at least ensure Italy only need one more point to finish second behind England in Group C.

The Faroe Islands are the only nation in Group E that cannot qualify directly for the finals, but even they may advance via the playoffs. Moldova host leaders Albania on Friday while the Czech Republic travel to the capital of Poland for a crucial clash.

Northern Ireland‘s bleak and already moot qualification campaign limps towards its merciful conclusion with a trip to Finland this week. Kazakhstan take on the only nation below Michael O’Neill’s side in Group H, San Marino, while the top two of Denmark and Slovenia face off in Copenhagen.

Group B is made up of two fixtures that practically have predetermined victors. World Cup finalists France host pointless and goalless Gibraltar in the most one-sided match of the entire qualification process but a victory for the Netherlands over the Republic of Ireland on Saturday may be even more likely.

Ireland, unable to qualify directly, are relying upon a spot in the playoffs to reach Germany. However, they need as many teams above them in the Nations League rankings to qualify for the Euros automatically to free up a spot in the playoffs. The Dutch are one of those nations that would limit Ireland’s chances of securing a knockout tie were they to miss out on direct qualification. A win for Ronald Koeman’s side in Amsterdam on Saturday guarantees them second place behind France and above Greece.

Wales and Croatia are gunning for second place in Group D behind Turkey. Rob Page’s side are level on points with the World Cup bronze medallists ahead of their trip to Armenia on Saturday. Croatia face bottom side Latvia but have to hope for a slip-up from the Welsh as they have an inferior head-to-head record.

Despite the off-pitch turmoil, Israel are sure of at least a playoff spot ahead of Romania‘s visit this weekend. Switzerland and Kosovo both have the chance of qualifying directly while Belarus and Andorra duke out a dead rubber at the foot of Group I.

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